CNN
—
A set of countervailing political forces might have contributed to the closeness of this 12 months’s midterm elections, in accordance with the present outcomes of the national exit poll performed for CNN and different information networks by Edison Analysis. It stays unsure which occasion will management both the Senate or the Home of Representatives subsequent 12 months, with votes nonetheless being counted and key races too early to name.
Voters have been broadly discontented with the state of the nation, the financial system and President Joe Biden, the exit poll found – the form of political surroundings that conventionally results in a midterm backlash in opposition to the occasion within the White Home. However different components, together with views on abortion and Biden’s predecessor, might have helped preserve Democrats aggressive throughout the nation.
About three-quarters of voters stated they have been dissatisfied or indignant about the best way issues are going within the US, and an identical share known as the financial system not so good or poor. Biden’s approval ranking was underwater among the many citizens, with solely about 44% of voters approving, and about 55% disapproving – round 45% stated they strongly disapproved. Voters have been extra prone to say Biden’s insurance policies had harm than helped the nation, and extra prone to say their vote was meant to oppose Biden than to say it was in assist of him.
A slim plurality of voters, about 31%, known as inflation their high situation, and roughly 8 in 10 stated inflation had been a hardship for them personally. By roughly a 12-point margin, voters stated they trusted the GOP over the Democratic Celebration to deal with inflation.
However the obvious closeness of the election suggests the midterms weren’t solely a referendum on an unpopular president or a response to grim views of the financial system. The Supreme Court docket’s overturning of Roe v. Wade introduced abortion to heart stage, with about 27% of voters calling it their high situation. About 6 in 10 voters felt negatively concerning the resolution, with practically 4 in 10 expressing anger. Democrats had a roughly 11-point edge over the GOP when it got here to which occasion voters trusted extra to deal with points associated to abortion.
And former President Donald Trump was on voters’ minds practically as a lot because the incumbent. Roughly 28% of voters stated they meant their vote to precise opposition to him, just a few factors decrease than the roughly one-third who stated they have been expressing opposition to Biden.
Neither occasion held a picture benefit amongst voters. About 4 in 10 voters had a positive view solely of the Democratic Celebration, with roughly the identical share having a positive view of solely the Republican Celebration, and about 11% viewing neither occasion favorably. Related shares of voters thought both that solely Democrats have been too excessive (about 38%) or that solely Republicans have been (about 39%). About 13% known as each events too excessive and the rest stated that neither was. Voters additionally held web destructive value determinations of each Democratic Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Home GOP chief Kevin McCarthy, though fewer supplied an opinion of McCarthy.
There was a big partisan divide in voters’ priorities and attitudes this 12 months. About 45% of voters who supported a GOP Home candidate known as inflation their high situation from a listing of 5, with 15% choosing immigration and fewer than 15% choosing some other situation as their precedence. Amongst voters who backed a Democratic candidate, about 43% known as abortion their high situation, with 18% choosing inflation and fewer than 15% choosing one other situation.
Even on a person stage, many citizens balanced a number of, and at occasions competing, priorities. Round 45% of voters stated each that inflation had posed a hardship for his or her household and that they have been dissatisfied or indignant to see Roe v. Wade overturned. A tenth of voters trusted Democrats extra to deal with abortion, however Republicans extra to deal with inflation.
Particular points weren’t the one consideration, both. In exit polls throughout 9 states with key Senate races, greater than 70% of voters known as occasion management of the Senate crucial to their vote. Requested concerning the candidates’ attributes that mattered most to them, voters in most of these states have been carefully divided on whether or not they prioritized choosing a candidate who shared their values, or one who demonstrated honesty and integrity – with fewer saying they have been searching for candidates who cared about folks like them, or who had the best expertise.
The energy of particular person candidates seemingly helped Democratic candidates in some Senate and gubernatorial races to win over some voters who have been disenchanted with the Democratic president. In New Hampshire, for example, Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan stored her seat by profitable practically all voters who authorised of Biden, in addition to roughly one-fifth of those that disapproved. In Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race, the projected Democratic winner, Josh Shapiro, picked up roughly one-quarter of commonwealth voters who disapproved of Biden. In quite a lot of races, Democratic candidates gained outright amongst voters who considerably disapproved of Biden.
The 2022 exit polls embody interviews with 1000’s of voters, each those that forged a poll on Election Day and people who voted early or absentee. That scope makes them a strong device for understanding the demographic profile and political opinions of voters on this 12 months’s election. And their findings will ultimately be weighted in opposition to the last word benchmark: the outcomes of the elections themselves. Even so, exit polls are nonetheless polls, with margins for error – which suggests they’re most helpful when handled as estimates, reasonably than exact measurements. That’s notably true earlier than the exit ballot numbers are adjusted to match ultimate election outcomes.
CNN Exit Polls are a mixture of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and in-person interviews, phone and on-line polls measuring the views of early and absentee by-mail voters. They have been performed by Edison Analysis on behalf of the Nationwide Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day have been performed at a random pattern of 241 polling places. The outcomes additionally embody interviews with early and absentee voters performed in-person at 72 early voting places, by cellphone or on-line. Outcomes for the complete pattern of 18,571 respondents have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 share factors; it’s bigger for subgroups.
